Vietnam: The plan to increase export volume by 6% in 2023 has not been completed!

"Made in Vietnam" goods: choices for many major markets

Establishing comprehensive strategic partnerships with six major countries, implementing 16 free trade agreements (FTAs), and entering the top 20 countries with the largest global trade volume, Vietnam will continue to attract global buyers in 2024.

Export, one of the three important pillars of economic growth (investment, export, and consumption), has experienced double-digit negative growth since the first quarter of 2023, with a decline of 11.8% compared to the same period last year. However, in the following quarters, the decline gradually narrowed. This number accurately reflects the difficult situation of the global economic and trade situation.

During difficult times, enterprises have deeply implemented the "accumulated measures" and developed product codes with high difficulty and high technological content... This is a method that many textile, clothing, and footwear enterprises have deeply applied. With macroeconomic support and the introduction of new policies, the decline in exports has decreased from 12% in the first half of 2023 to approximately 4.6% for the entire year of 2023.

The total import and export volume for 2023 announced by the State Administration of Statistics was 683 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.6%, of which exports were 355.5 billion US dollars, a decrease of 4.4%, and imports were 327.5 billion US dollars, a decrease of 8.9% compared to the previous year.

With such achievements, Vietnam has maintained a trade surplus for 8 consecutive years, with a surplus of nearly 28 billion US dollars, an increase of more than twice compared to 2022, making a positive contribution to the balance of international payments. Increased foreign exchange reserves, stabilized exchange rates, and macroeconomic indicators. This is also Vietnam's record breaking trade surplus for many years.

The goal of the Ministry of Industry and Trade is to increase the total export volume by 6% in 2024 compared to 2023. The trade balance has been in surplus for 9 consecutive years, with a trade surplus of approximately 15 billion US dollars.

Large industries such as computers, telephones, textiles, and footwear will continue to conquer and seize the opportunities of market recovery in the United States, China, the European Union, ASEAN, and South Korea. In 2024, we will introduce foreign exchange into the domestic market.

Despite a decline in exports, which did not meet the 6% growth target planned at the beginning of the year, the $355.5 billion revenue was the result of the government, various departments, industries, and their "best efforts". They eliminated difficulties, sought solutions to obtain orders, and earned every foreign exchange from exports.

Chen Qinghai, Deputy Director of the Import and Export Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, analyzed: In the context of a poor macro environment, global total demand has decreased, and Vietnam's import and export trade with other countries has been negatively affected. The export amount has decreased compared to 2022, but compared to the decline in other countries in the region, Vietnam's exports have basically recovered more positively. According to data from Chen Qinghai, Malaysia's exports decreased by 11.7%, Indonesia's exports decreased by 12.3%, and Singapore's exports decreased by 10.8% in the first nine months of 2023

Despite facing pressure from inflation and weak consumption, Vietnam is still listed as one of the top 20 countries with the largest global trade volume, indicating that Vietnam has effectively utilized free trade agreements to promote exports.

Identify key industries and markets

Although exports decreased by billions of dollars compared to last year, as of the end of 2023, the two major export industries of computers, mobile phones, and components contributed $110.5 billion in revenue. Under this momentum, the goal of these two leading industries is to achieve revenue of $117 billion by 2024.

Textile, fiber, footwear, and luggage generated $62.5 billion in revenue, and due to the increasingly effective utilization of early integration and signing of free trade agreements, the industry remains a growth potential industry.

The category of processed industrial products is the main part leading the growth, accounting for 85% of the export revenue structure; Due to the high volume of orders, agricultural products, rice, and fruits will still be the highlights of 2024.

Vietnam's footprint in the global commodity supply chain is becoming increasingly bold, with sales of up to $53 billion in agricultural products to the world.

China is a rare large export market with a growth rate of over 11.6%. It has imported over $61.7 billion worth of goods from Vietnam and will continue to open its doors to many official agricultural exports next year.

An important pivot is that Vietnam's relationship with the United States and Japan has just been upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, contributing many points to the trade of goods. Vice Premier Chen Liuguang predicts that the upgrading of Vietnam US relations will lay the foundation for the bilateral trade volume to exceed 200 billion US dollars as soon as possible.

As of now, Vietnam has established comprehensive strategic partnerships with China, Russia, South Korea, India, the United States, Japan, and others. In addition to the three free trade agreements currently under negotiation, political relations with China, the United States, and the European Union have also been strengthened and upgraded, creating a prerequisite for expanding exports.

However, given the pressure of trade protection investigations and origin fraud on Vietnam's main export products to major markets such as the European Union and the United States, Vietnamese enterprises need to update information, adjust production, and reduce export disadvantages in order to effectively overcome new trade barriers in the market.